Tuesday, November 28, 2006

A Time to Rebuild

The Worst Part of a Downslope? Everyone knows it.

As winter meetings approach, it has become evident that Bonds left the Giants with more than an empty number 3 spot in the lineup. His departure has unveiled an average ballclub with worse problems than lack of a power hitter; free agents simply do not want to play for San Francisco.

And why should they? While their minor league system has developed a knack for producing great arms with Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, they have had just as many problems keeping them consistent. Munter, Taschner and most notably Noah Lowry have all struggled to find the success they had towards the early part of their careers.

On the offensive side of the ball, the star threat is Kevin Frandsen. That's a problem. Not to knock the kid, but I don't see the next Jeff Kent in the young second baseman.

Looking back two seasons ago, before Bonds' decline, we were lucky enough to sign a hall of famer in Omar Vizquel to a three year contract. Here was a player in his late thirties who had more gold gloves than you could count with one hand who was just looking for one thing: a ring. When asked why he decided to come to San Francisco, he replied, "I wanted to play with Barry Bonds and win a ring". Great players go to teams that they feel can win. It's that simple.

This offseason, Brian Sabean is paying the price for taking the team downhill for the past three seasons. No amount of money can attract winners. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee and who knows how many others can see the writing on the wall. That's why we haven't signed a big name and is precisely why the pursuit for Manny Ramirez at this stage is irrelevant.

You invest in a player of his caliber to attract more players to signing with your ballclub. Sabean's window of time has closed without getting any real results.

So as not to critique without offering a viable solution, I will say this. It is obvious that the Giants have neither the free agent market or the minor league talent to make a big money run at the pennant this coming season. Sabean's best option is to go with the original game plan.

Develop young talent. Hold off the temptation to sign Bonds, Feliz and Durham. It's time to give Freddy Lewis, Kevin Frandsen and co. an opportunity for some major league experience. Taking the opportunity to save money for a chance, let's see how a younger team does in the weak National League West.

The dollars that come in from the All Star game coupled with the money saved could be more than enough to land a variety of free agents early next offseason in a market that shows much more promise. If the Mets turnaround after signing Carlos Beltran two years ago says anything, it's that it only takes one big splash. Pedro, Delgado were sure to follow. That, coupled with the emergence of their minor league stars Reyes and Wright, brought a new life to the ballclub.

With a salary cap in the 90 million dollar range, there is no reason a revolution can't happen in San Francisco. It's not only time for fans to regain that sense that the Giants are a winning organization, but for free agents as well.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Changing Faces

One good contract season used to mean a contract for a few good years for an MLB pitcher. With the abundance of cash baseball has brought in the post-steroids era coupled with the revenue sharing plans, teams have had deeper pockets and an even stronger drive to edge the competition.

Following the 2005 campaign, Giants pitcher Jason Schmidt expressed regret when the San Francisco elected to pick up his 10.5 million dollar option for 2006. Back in 2001, he had signed a 4 year 31 million dollar contract with the 2006 option. Given his age, the same deal would have been closer to 50 million today.

It is most appropriately called the Steinbrenner effect. It's an acknowledgement that losing dollars is part of the process of winning. With a huge influx of dollars each season, the team can afford to take on long contracts and still guess wrong on a few. What does this type of competition breed? The over-appreciation of players.

A.J. Burnett, Kevin Millwood, and Jarrod Washburn were players with good years, but never dominant in their own right. Collectively they signed contracts last offseason for 140 million dollars over 13 years. Spending Cy Young candidate dollars, each player came up well short:

2006 Season
A.J. Burnett 21 GS, 10-8, 3.98 ERA
Jarrod Washburn 31 GS, 8-14, 4.67 ERA
Kevin Millwood 34 GS, 16-12, 4.52 ERA

With Toronto, Boston, Angels and more recently the NY Mets spending more dollars to keep up, the competition alone will continue to raise the value of pitching this offseason. What most don't realize however is that this is just the beginning.

Signing a new collective bargaining agreement just last month, both the owners and players association have agreed that the profit sharing system is working. It is allowing lower market teams to retain bigger market dollars. Certainly the Kansas City Royals will never be able to bid like New York, but they at the very least have the opportunity to sign a few long term deals. The affect is likely to be seen most amongst mid-market teams. Seven years with seven different World Series champions is unseen in any other market.

With any trend in spending, newer practices are being seen in retaining their younger players. Mets GM Omar Minaya was quick to act this season, signing both David Wright and Jose Reyes to multi-year deals to keep from losing them to free agency. Minaya knew first hand how prices could sore in the free agent market, signing both Carlos and Pedro Martinez to long term deals in 2005 and 2006 respectively.

Contracts are getting longer, less players are filing for free agency and all the while, one has to wonder how Billy Beane gets his team to the playoffs every year with a 62 million dollar payroll.

Perhaps the answer is in the draft, which is precisely where Giants GM Brian Sabean needs to start in his rebuilding process. Their farm system is known for producing great pitching but poor offensive players. They made a splash however signing 16 year old prospect Angel Villalona out of the Dominican Republic with a $2.1 million signing bonus.

The idea? Develop young talent and utilize their production in the years before the qualify for free agency. Billy Beane has been using this theory for years. Every free agent player is assigned a class, A, B or C. If a team signs a Class A player, his former team receives a compensation first round pick from the players new team in the upcoming draft.

Beane may have lost great players, however he was able to replace them better than any GM in the league. Losing up to 4 class A free agents this offseason, the next draft will pivotal in determining Sabean's future in San Francisco.

Bidding wars are going to continue and the free agent market is going to get worse. If the Giants are planning to get young, they need to start now. The question is whether the fans can be patient enough to see that it will take a few years. Going for quick gold the past two seasons, Sabean is already a few too many behind.

I think I speak for every Giants fan in saying, now it's time to catch up.
Blog Directory & Search engine